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Iran Conflict Sparks Market Downturn, Yields Surge in Q1
First Quarter, 2026
John R. Sides, CFA
The quarter began with benign expectations for growth, inflation and the labor market. Asset prices reflected the rosy outlook as equities pushed to all-time highs, bond yields were range-bound, and volatility suppressed. However, by the end of the quarter all focus shifted to the escalating conflict in Iran.
The most severe market reaction was witnessed in commodities and interest rates…
Record Shutdown, Rate Cuts and Curve Steepening in Q4
Fourth Quarter, 2025
John R. Sides, CFA
At midnight on October 1st, a 43-day shutdown of the Federal government commenced, the longest such event in U.S. history. As a result, for much of the quarter the release of standard economic data was either delayed or postponed indefinitely. Uncertainty around forward Fed policy grew more pronounced. Investors gravitated towards “alternative data” sources in an effort to pick apart the state of domestic growth…
Risk and Rates: Growth, Easing, and Repricing in Q3
Third Quarter, 2025
John R. Sides, CFA
The third quarter was characterized by a continued run-up in both risky asset classes and traditional safe havens. Equities, corporate credit, and securitized products all performed admirably, as did U.S. government bonds and precious metals like gold and silver. Despite a broad easing of financial conditions, the Federal Reserve took a dovish turn. At the annual…
Market Volatility: Policy Shocks and Stabilization in Q2
Second Quarter, 2025
John R. Sides, CFA
The second quarter started with a bang. Just two days into the quarter, we witnessed “Liberation Day” and its sweeping tariff announcements. This marked the start of a tremendously volatile quarter for publicly- traded asset classes. These policy shifts triggered a sharp, albeit brief, sell-off across equities and credit markets. Within just four trading sessions, the S&P 500 declined by over 12% and credit spreads widened markedly…
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