Market Volatility: Policy Shocks and Stabilization in Q2

Second Quarter, 2025

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John R. Sides, CFA

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The second quarter started with a bang. Just two days into the quarter, we witnessed “Liberation Day” and its sweeping tariff announcements. This marked the start of a tremendously volatile quarter for publicly-traded asset classes. These policy shifts triggered a sharp, albeit brief, sell-off across equities and credit markets. Within just four trading sessions, the S&P 500 declined by over 12% and credit spreads widened markedly as risk aversion spiked. The carnage was quickly recouped as announced tariffs were “postponed” and dip-buying emerged in risk assets. During the quarter, the Treasury curve twisted steeper as long-dated yields rose as concerns over fiscal deficits and a rising term premium took hold, while front-end rates remained anchored by Federal Reserve policy. The 10-year Treasury yield was largely unchanged in aggregate, but the spread between 10-year and 2-year yields widened to 0.56 percentage points by quarter-end, reflecting investor demand for greater compensation on longer maturities. Importantly, there has been a notable dispersion between “soft” economic data and the “hard” data. Soft data, which are qualitative tools such as measures of consumer expectations, largely weakened in the second quarter. However, we have not seen that translate meaningfully to the hard data - the actual figures on the labor market, inflation, and growth.

So, with many unknowns, what do we know? So far, inflation has remained subdued with a tariff-driven spike yet to materialize. Headline CPI readings remained subdued, with year-over-year prints of 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.4% over the past three months, while Core CPI held at 2.8%, the lowest levels since early 2021. Non-farm payrolls averaged +143k per month between April and May, up from a monthly average of +111k in the first quarter, reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative. While Fed Chairman Powell maintains a hawkish tone, voices within the Fed are emerging in support of further rate cuts. However, there is clear reticence from the Chairman to cut rates until the impact of proposed tariffs shows up in data. The Federal Reserve’s median dots out the curve have risen, a hawkish signal, but the market is still pricing in a little more than two cuts by the end of 2025.

Geopolitical developments, particularly heightened tensions in the Middle East, added another layer of complexity. However, the market’s reaction mechanism didn’t necessarily function as one would expect - equities advanced, traditional havens were mixed, and Brent Crude ultimately fell. By quarter’s end, spreads across investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds, agency mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities had tightened, reflecting renewed investor confidence and robust demand for risk assets. As we move forward into the third quarter, important developments include a possible resumption of Fed rate cuts, any further clarity around deregulation in the banking sector, and the eventual fate of the “big beautiful bill.” Crucially, the tariff narrative remains central, with the expiration of proposed measures in July and August likely to shape market dynamics in the months ahead.

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