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Market Volatility: Policy Shocks and Stabilization in Q2
Second Quarter, 2025
John R. Sides, CFA
The second quarter started with a bang. Just two days into the quarter, we witnessed “Liberation Day” and its sweeping tariff announcements. This marked the start of a tremendously volatile quarter for publicly- traded asset classes. These policy shifts triggered a sharp, albeit brief, sell-off across equities and credit markets. Within just four trading sessions, the S&P 500 declined by over 12% and credit spreads widened markedly…
Risk and Rates: Growth, Easing, and Repricing in Q3
Third Quarter, 2025
John R. Sides, CFA
The third quarter was characterized by a continued run-up in both risky asset classes and traditional safe havens. Equities, corporate credit, and securitized products all performed admirably, as did U.S. government bonds and precious metals like gold and silver. Despite a broad easing of financial conditions, the Federal Reserve took a dovish turn. At the annual…
Market Outlook: Q1 Policy Shifts and Quality Opportunities
First Quarter, 2025
John R. Sides, CFA
After a tremendous rally in risk assets throughout most of 2024, the first quarter of 2025 witnessed a marked reversal. While the primary drivers of last year’s price action were dovish Fed policy and a benign inflation outlook, attention has now shifted to the economic policies of the current administration and their potential impact on growth. Various policy proposals—namely tariffs—led to significant volatility across equities…
A Hawkish Shift: Markets React to Inflation and Policy Signals in Q4
Fourth Quarter, 2024
John R. Sides, CFA
The final quarter of 2024 was marked by a distinctively hawkish turn in expected monetary policy. While the Fed eased twice during the quarter—25bps at their November meeting and another 25bps at the December meeting—the narrative changed significantly. The primary driver? A high likelihood of inflationary policies from the incoming administration, which would complicate the Fed’s ability to implement further rate…
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